An awful lot of digital ink has been spilled on Patrick Roys 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche this summer, a team that more or less defied woeful play at five-on-five by riding unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Largely because we have seen a model of this team before, many analysts are expecting some form of regression a€“ the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs have provided ample case studies in the importance of getting the right side of possession. Perhaps more accurately, they have provided lessons on why teams must not rely on volatile percentages to rack up wins. What makes this Colorado team interesting is two-fold. Firstly, theyre teeming with young and developing talent, which could help stave off that regression to a degree. Secondly, we have only seen one year of real success from this club. The season before, Colorado played to a 67-point pace and finished dead last in the Western Conference. Since we have data on teams dating back to 2007, its not particularly difficult to investigate relationships between sets of data. Correlations of subsequent seasons can tell us what kind of adjustments to make, if any, when trying to forecast future output. What I went ahead and did prior to this post was pull out Year 1 vs. Year 2 data for a variety of team-level even-strength numbers from 2007 to 2012 and dropped them in the table below. Repeatability is an r-squared number that tells us the percent of variance explained - the higher the r-squared number (up to 1.0), the more repeatable of a skill it is: Category Repeatability EV Shooting Percentage 0.00 EV Save Percentage 0.13 EV Goal For% 0.19 EV Fenwick% 0.33 EV Corsi% 0.38 EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick% (SAF%) 0.39 You are reading the above correctly. A teams even-strength shooting percentage over one year tells us absolutely nothing about how that team will shoot the following year. Save percentage is slightly more telling than shooting percentage, but ultimately, its a number youre going to want to heavily regress. As you go down the list, the correlations in data run tighter and the numbers dont need to be regressed as heavily. None of this bodes well for Colorado, a team that rode high percentages and carried terrible territorial control. One other note on the above - youll see that the r-squared between EV GoalFor% in the first year and EV GoalFor% in the subsequent year is 0.19. While EV GoalFor% is a better predictor of future EV GoalFor% than both EV Fenwick% and EV Corsi%, it is not a better predictor than EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick%. That said, lets look at some comparables for the Colorado Avalanche - teams that picked up 90 or more points (my random cut-off line separating average teams from good ones) who also carried sub-par possession numbers at even-strength. Well use equations generated for the year-one to year-two correlations to create an estimated number, and then compare it against the teams actual number. First, lets do the percentages at even-strength: Y1 EVSH% Est. Y2 EVSH% Actual Y2 EVSH% 2007 Pittsburgh 8.96% 7.89% 9.76% 2007 Montreal 8.73% 7.88% 8.23% 2007 Minnesota 8.39% 7.88% 7.50% 2008 Florida 8.35% 7.88% 7.71% 2008 Montreal 8.23% 7.88% 7.58% 2009 Colorado 8.84% 7.89% 7.93% 2010 Carolina 8.05% 7.88% 7.26% 2010 Dallas 8.72% 7.89% 7.62% 2010 Anaheim 7.79% 7.87% 7.99% 2013 Colorado 8.77% 7.89% ? AVERAGE 8.48% 7.88% 7.95% Its almost stunning how identical the expected year two and actual year two percentages are on both ends of the rink. The takeaway from this is simple: one year of shooting percentage data tells us absolutely nothing, and regressing it all the way to the league average will give us a much better forecast of whats to come. Y1 EVSV% Est. Y2 EVSV% Actual Y2EVSV% 2007 Pittsburgh 93.29% 92.55% 92.40% 2007 Montreal 92.53% 92.28% 92.27% 2007 Minnesota 92.25% 92.18% 92.70% 2008 Florida 93.27% 92.54% 93.13% 2008 Montreal 92.27% 92.19% 92.90% 2009 Colorado 92.62% 92.31% 91.35% 2010 Carolina 92.45% 92.25% 92.34% 2010 Dallas 92.49% 92.27% 92.05% 2010 Anaheim 92.32% 92.21% 91.66% 2013 Colorado 93.07% 92.47% ? AVERAGE 92.66% 92.33% 92.31% The same can be said for save percentage data - taking our year one data and pulling it back 87 per cent to the league average gives us a more accurate guess as to whats to come. Using that regression for forecasting purposes, expect Colorado to shoot around 7.89 per cent for next year at evens and stop around 92.47 per cent of the shots. Now, lets break away from shooting and save percentages and look at possession rates. We know Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is the most repeatable of these metrics. Lets repeat the above exercise with the same Colorado comparables, and try to pindown where Colorado will finish at evens this season. Ive included a fourth column in here to identify the change in points from Year 1 to Year 2. Y1 SAF% Est. Y2 SAF% Actual Y2 SAF% Points Change 2007 Pittsburgh 46.70% 48.05% 49.21% -3 2007 Montreal 47.22% 48.36% 47.56% -11 2007 Minnesota 47.77% 48.68% 47.39% -9 2008 Florida 46.18% 47.75% 45.66% -16 2008 Montreal 47.60% 48.58% 46.78% -5 2009 Colorado 46.33% 47.83% 46.38% -27 2010 Carolina 47.18% 48.34% 47.18% -9 2010 Dallas 47.60% 48.58% 47.60% -6 2010 Anaheim 45.46% 47.32% 45.46% -20 2013 Colorado 47.18% 48.34% ? ? AVERAGE 46.92% 48.18% 47.02% -11.78 You should first notice that regression seems less important with our possession numbers than the shooting/save percentages above. Thata€?s because possession is a repeatable skill - or in this case, the lack of possession is a repeatable skill. Every team that can be considered a comparable for Colorado 2013-14 was out-shot in Year 1 and Year 2 - in most cases, decisively. And, ita€?s impossible to ignore that column on the right, where every single percentage-good, possession-bad team of recent history saw a fall in the standings. The average fall for those nine teams was in the double digits, and the one team that didna€?t take a massive hit - 2007 Pittsburgh - improved their possession numbers by almost three full percentage points. Not only are those percentages running against the Avs, but they also go into next season missing their two best possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastny signing in St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal. Further, its difficult to project improved possession numbers when the Avalanche brain trust doesnt seem inclined to dig into possession-based analytics. This does not bode well for Patrick Roya€?s team. Ita€?s a virtual lock that their shooting and save percentages will climb down from their heights of last year, which means that their Goal% - last year, it was at 53.6 per cent - is in real trouble. The million dollar question is how far the Avs will fall - knocking them down by the average (-11.78) would likely still see them finish in the post-season, but their margin for error will be extremely tight this year. Bill Madlock Jersey .Y. - Carey Price had an early feeling that one goal might be enough to settle the latest matchup between his Montreal Canadiens and longtime Original Six foe, the New York Rangers. Todd Hundley Jersey . - Kevin Labanc and Joseph Blandisi were a potent combination for the Barrie Colts on Friday night. http://www.customcubsjersey.com/custom-rod-beck-jersey-large-1070n.html . Finlands Kari Lehtonen made 26 saves to lead Dallas over the Phoenix Coyotes 2-1 Saturday night. He received plenty of help from the Stars defence and got goals from Ray Whitney and Russias Valeri Nichushkin. Miguel Amaya Jersey . The 6-foot-10 centre who won an NBA title with the Miami Heat was voted to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame on Monday, adding that honour to becoming a board member at his alma mater. David Phelps Jersey . Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist stood tall with 41 saves between the pipes, but it was defenceman Ryan McDonagh who got the first star of the game as he had a goal and an assist and now has two goals and four assists for six points in two games. TORONTO -- A half-time message woke up the Raptors on a night when Toronto found itself sleepwalking against the struggling Detroit Pistons. "We pretty much said, This is a must-win game," Amir Johnson said after Toronto trailed Detroit by four at the break but finished with a 112-91 win Wednesday. "We had to go out and take it. We did that." After Johnson and DeMar DeRozan started the game cold, their teammates kept things close and allowed a second-half turnaround to take place. Jonas Valanciunas had 16 points and 11 rebounds while Kyle Lowry scored 21 points and added nine assists in a game the Raptors needed to work themselves into. "The first half was a little sluggish but we picked it up and thats most important," said Lowry. "Thats a team. You need everybody, all 15 guys and all 13 that are dressed to step up and take advantage when the opportunity comes." Toronto (17-17) needed strong performances from Valanciunas and Lowry. DeRozan and Johnson combined to shoot 0 for 16 from the floor in the first half with the team making just 33 per cent of their field goals compared to 47 per cent shooting from the Pistons. Brandon Jennings led the way for Detroit (14-22), scoring 22 points to go with nine assists in the loss. Andre Drummond added 16 rebounds as the Pistons lost their sixth straight. After going up 11 midway through the second quarter, the Raptors went more than five minutes without a field goal and allowed Detroit to go on a 14-0 run to take a 54-50 lead at the half. "We started off terrible," DeRozan said. "We didnt have any legs and we told ourselves that we can have no excuses. We had to pick it up because that wasnt us in the first half." Things flipped in the third quarter when the Raptors outscored Detroit 34-20 while making 11 of their 22 field-goal attempts. DeRozan and Johnson were able to shake off their starts to help Toronto build a 10-point advantage going into the fourth. "There was a big difference," Toronto head coach Dwane Casey said of the two halves. "We knew it was going to be a grind out game and thats something wwe are learning to do, to grind things out possession by possession, quarter by quarter.dddddddddddd "We knew DeMar and Amir werent going to go zero-for, in the second half. The defensive intensity (after halftime) is what changed the game." The final quarter resembled the third as Toronto outplayed the Pistons and broke the game open with five minutes remaining and the lead up to 18. All five of Torontos starters finished the game in double figures after the team dropped its last two contests against the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers. DeRozan finished the game shooting just 3 for 15 from the floor, but connected on 13 of his 16 free-throw attempts to finish the game with 19 points. The 16 free throws tied a career-high. "He went to plan B and thats what hes got to do," Casey said about DeRozans night. "About a year or two ago he wouldnt have done that. He did a good job of attacking the feet and taking what the defence gave him." Johnson finished the game with 10 points and 11 rebounds and Terrance Ross scored 17 points. "Hes improving as a basketball player," Lowry said of Rosss evolving game. "Catching and shooting, his confidence is unbelievable. Hes showing his versatility. He can play defence. Hes scoring, but if you look at the defensive assignments hes had in the past few weeks, hes done a great job at it ... I know I tip my hat to him." Lowrys explanation for the strides Ross has taken was simple -- hes playing more. "Thats how you get better," he said. "Once you get more minutes, more repetition, thats how you get better." Toronto finished the game shooting 41 per cent from the floor as compared to 40 per cent for the Pistons, but the Raptors shot 91 per cent from the free-throw line, making 31 of their 34 attempts. Detroit made just 19-for-35 shots from the line. Notes: Torontos Tyler Hansbrough missed his fourth straight game with a left ankle sprain. ... Rodney Stuckey returned to action for the Pistons after missing three games with a sore shoulder. ... The Raptors return to the court Saturday at home to the Brooklyn Nets. ' ' '